“The fact is that COVID has already accelerated everything that was taking place in the marketplace,” says the former co-CEO of Whole Foods, Walter Robb. “Some people say that between 30 and 50 percent of small businesses are going to go out of business. We are going to see disruptions as the COVID turns left or turns right. It’s throwing curveballs at businesses. It’s very difficult to operate in this environment.
Walter Robb, former co-CEO of Whole Foods, discusses how COVID related business closures and restrictions by urban governors and mayors has accelerated the existing trend of retailers closing due to competition with big rivals that have a sophisticated and expansive presence online such as Amazon and Walmart:
COVID Accelerates Retail Closures
The fact is that COVID has already accelerated everything that was taking place in the marketplace. So I think you will see some more (retail bankruptcies). I saw some numbers from the Yelp folks that suggested there would be 150,000 businesses fold. Some people say that between 30 and 50 percent of small businesses are going to go out. We are going to see disruptions as the COVID turns left or turns right. It’s throwing curveballs at businesses. It’s very difficult to operate in this environment.
The main thing is can we keep the economy open in some safe manner? It isn’t whether it’s an essential business or a non-essential business. It’s whether we can keep it open for both the team members and for the customers. It’s going to really determine some of that. Some folks have already thrown in the towel and some folks are going through bankruptcy.
But there are a lot of folks working hard in retail to serve people. It will depend on whether we going to get some sort of support, both in terms of the main street lending facility amendment or in terms of keeping the economy open to let them continue to serve their customers.
With the future of retail we have crossed over the demarcation line, says Walter Robb, the former co-CEO of Whole Foods. “We’re not going back to the old retail,” said Robb. “It’s just not going to happen. That’s the combination of digital and physical. We’re in what I would call new retail, which is the integration.”
From where I sit the customer is doing pretty well. They’re spending. They’re pretty strong. There was a lot of pessimism at the back half of last year that was reflected in some of the stock prices, but I think that was overblown. We’re going to see a customer that’s doing pretty well this year in 2019 and might surprise a little bit to the upside. That being said, traditional retail models are under pressure. The customer is spending their dollars in so many different ways and places than they could before. You used to just open up four walls and open a store and now the customer has so many more options.
We do know that in the United States we’re about 24 square feet of retail space per capita and that’s two and a half times more than any other industrialized country. We have too much space so there’s going to be a winnowing out that’s going to happen here. There’s going to be winners and losers and we’re already seeing that. In 2019, I think that continues, but I do think that we’re in the second half of that. What we’re actually seeing that the mall is beginning to switch over and putting in exciting new uses and we’re seeing retail stores start to open again.
We Are Not Going Back to Old Retail
With the future of retail, we have crossed over the demarcation line. We’re not going back to the old retail. It’s just not going to happen. That’s the combination of digital and physical. You’re seeing the digital retailers, the Allbirds, the Warby Parker’s, come out and say, alright we’re going to open physical stores because we realize our customers want to experience our brand and be with us in that way. They’re bringing new ideas to that presentation of retail, which is pretty exciting.
At the same time, you’re seeing physical retailers adapt to digital ways. Take a look at Target and how they’ve employed all the new tools that they have for the customers, in-store apps and those sorts of things. You’re seeing a combination of these two. In some cases it’s adolescent and in some case it’s more mature, but we are not going back to just the simple form retailer. We’re in what I would call new retail, which is the integration.
The edge of which is actually in China with a supermarket called Hema from Alibaba, which is which is simply fantastic. It’s integrated on the back end and on the front end. I think you’re seeing retailers say, we’ve adapted to the age of Amazon and we understand this is how customers want to shop. We’re seeing a whole new generation of businesses and entrepreneurs say, I’m going to bring the customer this fusion of digital and physical in a way that’s really exciting and really compelling. We’re not going back. I opened my first store in 1978 but that’s just not as easy to do anymore because you have to have that the tools to really understand your customer personally. I think it’s pretty exciting to see what’s happening.
Physical and Digital Retailers Need Each Other
The business model on the last mile is very challenging unless you’re connected into a physical store. If you just out there floating without a connection to physical retail those have not proven to be sustainable. I think it’s clear to me that the customer wants that choice. I think the data is very clear that they want both. They’re not going to give up physical stores and that’s why you’re seeing these digital and physical retailers. They need each other and they need both parts of that to make the thing actually compelling for the customer.
I think there’ll be a shakeout. You seem some consolidation already, but the most interesting combinations are where the physical retailer buys the digital, where Target buys Shipt and where Walmart buys Flipkart or whatever you see around the world, realizing the combination is the most powerful. That will be the most sustainable from a business model perspective.
We Are Not Going Back to Old Retail, Says Walter Robb, former co-CEO of Whole Foods
There is nothing short of a revolution happening in the food marketplace today and it is not a quiet one, says Walter Robb, the former co-CEO of Whole Foods. “It is disrupting things left and right, all the way up the value chain back into the farmer’s field,” says Robb.
Walter Robb, former co-CEO of Whole Foods, discusses the revolution happening in the food marketplace in an interview on CNBC:
Nothing Short of a Revolution Happening in the Food Marketplace
There is nothing short of a revolution happening in the food marketplace today and it is not a quiet one. It is disrupting things left and right, all the way up the value chain back into the farmer’s field. For me, to see these (organic) brands and to see it show up at the Super Bowl, the biggest media stage of the world, is kind of an exciting thing.
Some 75 percent of the food we eat is from 12 plants. Somebody’s woken up to that realizing, wow, there’s a whole lot of stuff that we can create from stuff we don’t even know yet. The Natural Food Expo, which is the next month in LA, 85,000 people are going to that show. This is where the energy and the edge of the food industry is at right now.
We’ve broken into this area now where there’s an amazing amount of innovation with young companies and entrepreneurs. This is where the growing edge of the food industry is now. It’s not just natural and organic but it’s this innovation around new foods and new food types.
Amazing Amount of Innovation With Entrepreneurs
You have to build the tools to really understand your customer personally. I think it’s pretty exciting to see what’s happening. On the physical side, Walmart is doing a lot of things, Kroger is doing a lot of things, and Whole Foods is doing a lot of things to try to integrate digital and physical retail in a way that gives the customer a very rich experience.
I do think in terms of the food service delivery, Grubhub has had phenomenal growth. What’s happened is the world has woken up to how exciting food is again. We kind of went along after World War two for a number of years with this kind of dull drum of production, just regular stuff with the major CPG brands.
If you get a $5 latte and it’s probably a $5 delivery charge at what point does the customers say that’s a great value problem? I don’t know, but I think we’re going to find out. I do think this idea that the customer wants the convenience is here to stay and that they’re used to having that option. In some cases, they will choose it. Where that line is it’s too early to say exactly where they’ll say, that’s too expensive or that’s not a good deal.
According to the Wall Street Journal Amazon is testing larger format stores with its Amazon Go cashierless technology as a prelude to a Whole Foods rollout. The WSJ appeared to have spoken with several insiders. “It is unclear whether Amazon intends to use the technology for Whole Foods, although that is the most likely application if executives can make it work, according to the people.” There are predictions by some experts and entrepreneurs that virtually every physical retail store will be checkout free within 5-10 years.
Walter Robb, former Whole Foods co-CEO, discussed the possibility of Amazon adding its cashierless technology to Whole Foods in an interview on CNBC:
Amazon May Go Cashierless at Whole Foods
I just think is part of a larger revolution that’s happening in retail and in food in general. The customers are having more and more options. Amazon Go, which is now up to 13 stores already has this deployed in a smaller store format. The application of this to a larger selection of products, most Whole Foods stores have about 35,000 units, is very exciting and very interesting.
I think we’re just seeing this massive wave of disruption and innovation in retail in general. What this does is, if you call the grocery business about $2 trillion in the US plus or minus, what you’re seeing is all these new ways in which the customer can get their food. This is part of that choice. I think one of the things that people miss about the Amazon Whole Foods merger is the fact that physical retail really matters. What this does is say, okay we’re going to try to make the physical experience a little more streamlined for people so it contrasts with the online experience. I think you just see this bevy of choices the customers never had and we couldn’t even imagine five years ago.
Whole Foods and Amazon Culture Clash Smoothing Out
It’s still early but I think Amazon and Whole Foods certainly have different cultures and different styles, but I think that Amazon has very smart and capable people and I think the cultures are beginning to find their way, both their work processes. If you think about what we at Whole Foods gained from Amazon, we got tremendous first best-in-class technology and data capabilities, the digitization of Whole Foods, was significantly accelerated.
I think for Amazon they got a great brand in fresh foods which they’d struggle up to that point. They got the knowledge of the customer in the physical stores versus just the digital world and they got proximity to about 85% of the US population. It was a real win-win-win combination. People forget that food is probably the largest sector in the economy. This is a very significant deal that happened and I think a proxy for the fact of how business and commerce in general are evolving so quickly.
