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Tag: Apophis

  • “Doomsday” Asteroid Won’t Hit Earth in 2036

    Earlier this week, astronomers with the European Space Agency (ESA) announced that they were collecting data on the asteroid Apophis as it made its most recent approach to Earth. The data was, among other things, meant to narrow the prediction as to whether the asteroid might impact the Earth in 2036.

    Now, NASA has announced that Apophis will not be a threat to humanity in 2036. The asteroid will still make a close flyby of Earth, but it will not be impacting the planet or otherwise heralding “doomsday.”

    “With the new data provided by the Magdalena Ridge [New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology] and the Pan-STARRS [University of Hawaii] optical observatories, along with very recent data provided by the Goldstone Solar System Radar, we have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036,” said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). “The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036. Our interest in asteroid Apophis will essentially be for its scientific interest for the foreseeable future.”

    When Apophis was discovered in 2004 initial calculations gave it a 2.7% chance of impacting the Earth in 2029. Subsequent observations ruled out an impact in that year, and this new announcement means Apophis is harmless for the foreseeable future. In 2036 Apophis will come within 31,300 kilometers (19,400) of Earth – around one-twelfth the distance between Earth and the moon.

    “But much sooner, a closer approach by a lesser-known asteroid is going to occur in the middle of next month when a 40-meter-sized asteroid, 2012 DA14, flies safely past Earth’s surface at about 17,200 miles,” said Yeomans. “With new telescopes coming online, the upgrade of existing telescopes, and the continued refinement of our orbital determination process, there’s never a dull moment working on near-Earth objects.”

    (Image courtesy UH/IA)

  • Asteroid Apophis Approaches Earth, 2036 Impact Probability Still Uncertain

    Over the past weekend, astronomers used the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Herschel Space Observatory to image an asteroid that will be giving the Earth a near-miss in 2029.

    The asteroid, named Apophis, was thought to have a 2.7% chance of striking the Earth in 2029 when it was discovered in 2004. New observations have ruled out an impact, but the object still might come as close as 29,450 kilometers (18,300) miles from Earth – about 13 times closer to Earth than the moon, and closer than the orbits of geostationary satellites.

    Apophis will also make a close approach to Earth in 2036. The data collected over the weekend is expected to give astronomers an idea of whether an impact in 2036 can be ruled out.

    “Although Apophis initially caught public interest as a possible Earth impactor, which is now considered highly improbable for the foreseeable future, it is of considerable interest in its own right, and as an example of the class of Near Earth Objects,” said Göran Pilbratt, a Herschel project scientist with the ESA. “Our unique Herschel measurements play a key role for the physical characterisation of Apophis, and will improve the long-term prediction of its orbit.”

    The Apophis observations were able to refine the details known about the object using the first thermal infrared observations of the asteroid. Its estimated average diameter was was increased to around 325 meters, increasing mass estimates by around 75%. The estimate of its reflectivity, called an albedo, was narrowed to 0.23. Knowing the thermal properties, such as the albedo, of Apophis will make orbital estimates more accurate.

    “As well as the data being scientifically important in their own right, understanding key properties of asteroids will provide vital details for missions that might eventually visit potentially hazardous objects,” says Laurence O’Rourke, principal investigator of the MACH-11 observing programme, from the European Space Astronomy Centre (ESAC).

    (Image courtesy ESA/Herschel/PACS/MACH-11/MPE/ESAC)