Lilium is a company whose vision is to enable a world where anyone can fly, anywhere anytime, according to Lilium’s Head of Program Management, Andrew Welling. “We’re doing that via an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) jets,” he says. “By 2025, we hope that everyone will be able to order one of our jets at the push of a button.” Eventually, Lilium aims to go completely autonomous.
Andrew Welling, Head of Program Management at Lilium, discusses their goal of becoming the first company to offer autonomous ride-sharing electric jets in a feature produced by Amazon Web Services:
The World’s First eVTOL Jets
Lilium is a company whose vision is to enable a world where anyone can fly, anywhere anytime. We’re doing that via an all-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) jets. It’s the world’s first eVTOL jets. We are hoping to have a service operational in the early 2020s. By 2025, we hope that everyone will be able to order one of our Jets at the push of a button. Our Jets our vertical takeoff and landing jets which means that they can take off from a normal helipad. They take off vertically, rising to a few hundred meters before they transition into a forward flight.
For sure, our batteries are not light, they are obviously one of the heaviest components in our aircraft. But fundamentally, for the future of transport, it’s really important that we move to a world where we’re no longer reliant on fossil fuels. Our services are more like a ride-sharing air taxi service so we want this service to be accessible for anyone and not just the privileged few. The idea is that you’d be able to order a jet via an app on your phone. You would go to initially a defined landing pad to meet the jet, but pretty much it would be an on-demand service. You would be ride-sharing with others who are going to the same destination as you are.
The world’s first eVTOL jet.
The Aim is Autonomous Flight
One of the greatest things about our design is the efficiency that you get through having a wing on the aircraft which can tilt. That means we can take off and land vertically but then when we transition to forward flights we actually get the efficiencies that you get from a winged aircraft. Initially, we will have a pilot on board but the aim is eventually to go to autonomous flight.
We’re building our headquarters in Munich, Germany. That’s where we’re building up both our engineering teams, our production teams, and eventually where our core airline operations will be based. Our target is to have a service operational somewhere in the world by 2025.
Lilium eVTOL Jets Aims To Be First in Offering Ride-Sharing Autonomous Flights
EVgo CEO Cathy Zoi says she feels like we are at an inflection point with electric vehicles. EVgo is America’s largest public electric vehicle fast charging network with over 1,050 chargers in 66 metropolitan markets. “The car companies have announced $300 billion that they’re investing in making EVs,” says Zoi. “There are going to be 160 new models over the next few years. This is going from crazy boutiques mall to mainstream and consumers are going to love it.”
Cathy Zoi, CEO of EVgo, discusses electric vehicle trends in the US and in China in an interview on Bloomberg Technology:
Electric Vehicles Are Going Mainstream
I feel like we’re at an inflection point. The car companies have announced $300 billion that they’re investing in making EVs. There are going to be 160 new models over the next few years. This is going from crazy boutiques mall to mainstream and consumers are going to love it. Everybody I know that’s driven an EV loves driving it. I think what the car companies and we in the industry have in mind is the cost has to be competitive, the range has to be strong, and there has to be charging infrastructure everywhere.
When Tesla made their third-quarter targets every car company in the world and every boardroom said, oh my goodness. I think they need to be worried about everybody. What we see here in the United States is so much progress. General Motors is great. Nissan has been around for a long time also. GM and Nissan now have over 200-mile cars that are affordable. That is obviously really big. Ford had historically been a bit of a laggard and now Ford is leaning forward on making an electric F-150. I don’t think that there’s a car company that’s serious in the world that’s not investing seriously in electrification.
EVs Will be 30-40 Percent of Sales by 2030
We are just a few years from mainstream adoption of electric cars and fully relying on charging stations. We’ve already got a million EVs on the road in the United States. We suspect that there is going to be probably six or seven million in the five years or so, which is which is a lot. Bloomberg New Energy Finance says that it’s going to be fully ten percent of sales in 2025. With an inflection point on the S-curve and we’re going to be looking at 30-40 percent of sales in 2030.
What EVgo does is fast charging. What we’re seeing is that most people who bought an EV charged at home. But what we’re now seeing is people who live in apartments need to charge away from home quickly. The most interesting new bit is with the rise of the rideshare ride-hailing economy, where like my kids who are millennials don’t want cars, but they do ride-sharing all the time. The drivers of those cars like for Lyft and Uber, they need to drive, they need to charge quickly, and they need to charge away from home, and they charge a lot.
Electric trucks are starting to hit the scene now. I would say that light-duty vehicles, regular cars, are a couple years ahead of the trucks. But I just came from the Bloomberg conference and there were a number of truck companies that said, we placed an order for a thousand, we placed an order for a few hundred. So the experiments are beginning. Within a few years, you’re going to see truck fleets. All fleets are going to be relying increasingly on electrification.
China Market For EVs May Grow Faster Than US
Fascinatingly, the Chinese are moving really quickly and the difference in the policy settings are what might make China move even faster. Some say that right now it’s even money that we could win or China could win. If the Chinese government puts policies in place to accelerate the market then fully there are some people who would expect that 70 percent of EV sales in China’s, a very big economy, are going to be EV by 2030. Nobody thinks that the US market will move quite that fast. It has to do with creating policy reasons for manufacturing to go ahead fast.
With the market growing so quickly the market for non-luxury vehicles (over the next few years) is going to have a lot of market entrants. So I think that Tesla’s going to have to compete with that. They’re going to have to compete on cost. They’ve got beautiful vehicles. But look at the vehicles that Hyundai and Kia and Nissan and GM are bringing to market, they’re going to compete with Tesla. It’s going to be great.
Electric car startup Lucid Motors CTO says that their core competitor is an S-Class Mercedes, not a Model S Tesla. “We differ in that we are truly a luxury brand,” says Peter Rawlinson, Chief Technology Officer of Lucid Motors. “If you look at Tesla they’re high-tech, they’re beautifully engineered, they’re very disruptive, and they’re premium price, but you only have to get inside a Tesla to recognize it’s not a really a luxury car. It’s a premium car but not true luxury.”
Peter Rawlinson, Chief Technology Officer of Lucid Motors Inc., discussed comparisons with Tesla, Saudi Arabia funding, and rumors of a Ford acquisition in an interview on CNBC:
Tesla is Not Really a Luxury Car
We’re on track and the start of production is slated for the end of next year in 2020. We’ll have a range of prices. The initial batch of cars that we sell will be highly specified so therefore they’ll average over a $100,000. But we’ll make progressively more affordable versions of the car available as we ramp up production. Our car is operating in a different sector of the market. It’s truly a luxurious car so we’re really you need to compare us with a Mercedes-Benz S-Class, not something like a C-Class Mercedes.
An S-Class Mercedes is our core competitor, but a Model S Tesla would be a comparative electric model. But we differ in that we are truly a luxury brand. If you look at Tesla they’re high-tech, they’re beautifully engineered, they’re very disruptive, and they’re premium price, but you only have to get inside a Tesla to recognize it’s not a really a luxury car. It’s a premium car but not true luxury.
We start in production in Casa Grande, Arizona in late 2020 and we gradually ramp up production throughout 2021 and 2022. We’ll ramp production up from just a few cars to 50,000 units a year within two or three years. New cars will hit the road very early 2021.
Saudi Arabia is a Strong Strategic Partner
We’re delighted to have the public investment fund of Saudi Arabia as strategic investors in Lucid Motors. They’ve invested in the management team in the vision for the product, and in the technology that we have at Lucid. All our powertrain is designed and created in-house. It’s world-class technology and that’s what attracted them to us. They’re a great partner because in return we can work with them in enabling their vision to transition the economy of Saudi Arabia away from one which is heavily dependent upon fossil fuels. Moreover, together, we can create hundreds of high-tech jobs both in the state of California and in Arizona.
I really can’t speak for what moves they’ve made with Tesla. I can only speak for the relationship with Lucid and we’re very strong strategic partners. There’s a spiritual alignment. We both are very committed to really transition towards a more sustainable mobility model. We believe that the way to do that is first to make the very best car in the world, make it in the US, create a premium or luxury brand which is Lucid, and make that a global player. As a consequence, progressively make other models, other cars, which are progressively more affordable and then more people can benefit and we can actually have a meaningful impact on the environment and the impact that can have on global warming.
Moving the Way That Mankind is Mobilized
The key story is that we have an alignment, a partnership, to do something which is very meaningful and very good for many people, for this generation and for future generations, in moving the world of mobility, the way that mankind is mobilized, to a more sustainable model. I really believe that is our focus, that is my passion, and it’s something that we can do in partnership. The public investment fund of Saudi Arabia is enabling us to exercise that vision.
We believe that with the partnership that we’ve gotten, the strength of that partnership, and the future we have with a ten-year plan, Lucid can be hugely valuable we’re not contemplating a sale (to Ford or others). What we would contemplate is potential partnerships in technology. We think we have world-class technology that all the world could benefit from. A lot of the incumbents, OE’s, the traditional automakers, haven’t got the technology that we’ve developed. I think they could benefit from that. So I think that model would work, but a sale no.
This is the year that many of the technological innovations that Ford has been working on will start to come out. That’s the message that Ford CEO Jim Hackett is telling the media at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit which started today. Hackett says that the vehicles of the future will be so intelligent that they could drive themselves.
Hackett indicated that many of the innovations that will start to appear in Ford vehicles will related to the Internet of Things. IoT features would allow cars to be connected with other intelligent cars on the road which would ultimately make autonomous driving a much safer feature. They could also connect to intelligent cities of the future via the cloud to improve traffic flow.
Jim Hackett, CEO of Ford, talks about technological innovations that Ford will be announcing in 2019 with Fox Business:
Ford Working on Vehicles of the Future
It’s my history to take some time, not too much time, to be very thoughtful about a very powerful way that Ford’s going to win. We are through that phase. This is the year that we start execution.
A series of announcements are staged in time for when they need to come out. That together forms what we believe are the vehicles of the future. They will be ever more intelligent and ever more fun to drive. They are so intelligent that could drive themselves.
They relate to a world that in itself has gotten even more intelligent. For the listeners, it’s called Edge Computing. For others, it’s called the Internet of Things. All it means is your vehicle and the things it has to interact with will suddenly be talking to each other through vehicle connectivity, the cloud, and the brains that are inside the vehicle itself.
This is the Year of Intelligent Vehicles
There’s a period where all this is evolving and people are going to wonder if we are getting out of the car business. Not at all. It’s just the adoption of all this kind of performance changes what the vehicles can do. We’ve been hard at work mapping all that out and thinking all that through. This year you are starting to see some pieces of that come forth.
New Ford Investors Focused on New Technology
The market has begun to see these new technologies as attracting outside investors. There’s news in the last three days of people buying into artificial intelligence drive systems and of people putting money inside other car companies. It’s all about them investing in this new technology.
Ford is probably even more attractive to people like that because of how run the company is and how well architected the vehicles are. There’s not as much risk in that part.
After 30,000 real-world driverless Lyft test rides in Las Vegas consumers have rated it an amazing 4.95 out of 5, says Lyft’s Chief Strategy Officer Raj Kapoor. He says that in the last 12 months the system’s gotten smarter and the ride has gotten smoother. “It has measured reactions and acts like a really good driver versus maybe an inexperienced driver,” says Kappor. “That’s a big change.”
Raj Kapoor, Chief Strategy Officer at Lyft, was interviewed by PCMag at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas:
Consumers Rate Selfdriving Lyft Rides 4.95 Out of 5
What’s changed changed in the last 12 months with our selfdriving tests is first of all the system’s gotten smarter. The smartness comes out in terms of planning and prediction. You can now tell how smooth the selfdriving ride is. If it’s seeing pedestrians or lots of cars it doesn’t make knee-jerk reactions. It has measured reactions and acts like a really good driver versus maybe an inexperienced driver. That’s a big change.
Two is that we broadened the area that we’re operating significantly. We’re operating a geofence that covers almost all the major hotels in Las Vegas and you can go anywhere in that area versus very specific points.
It’s one of those rare instances where a cool demo from CES right away becomes a live service. We have now 30,000 rides that we’ve had in the system and so far the feedback has been awesome. Consumers have rated it a 4.95 out of 5 stars and 9 out of 10 people that go on a ride would come back and do it again.
We’re really quite pleased with it. I think people have a lot of questions around self-driving, there’s some fear, but once they get in and do the ride they are really excited about it and ready to do it again.
It’s using the same scale as normal Lyft rides and in their mind it’s that same perception of how comfortable, clean, did the person or the robot drive well, all those things go into account. The automated Lyft is rating pretty high but the human drivers definitely get up there too. But 4.95 out of 5 is very respectable.
Lyft Using Las Vegas Data to Perfect the Selfdriving Ride
We can notice a lot of things with this real selfdriving test. Las Vegas is a great proving ground because there are so many people from around the world that come here. You’re not just having residents that are here. You’re having people that are using it for their vacation, using it for going back and forth, so we’re able to collect lots of data from a big diverse group of people.
We’re able to see what the repeat use is like. What do they like about it? What do they dislike about it? How much do they like to walk to the vehicle versus not? There are all these little nuances that go in.
Another example is around remote assistance. We noticed that the people love to have a conversation with the safety driver. They’re so excited at that moment. The question we have is as we move toward a future without a safety driver is how do we still get that interaction with the consumer? Can we have a remote assistant do that? We’re learning all these little things by being in the real life out there with people.
In fact, there are two people in the front. There’s a safety driver and also a safety engineer that’s in the front. So usually it’s the safety engineer that’s answering the questions. The safety driver is very focused on the road.
What doing now is developing remote assistance systems where you can talk to a lift operator and ask the questions that you need to ask via a very conversational interface with the consumer. There’s a lot going on there and there’s a lot going through their head around building trust. What is this car seeing? Is it acting the way that I would act? Then asking questions about how does that technology work? How can it do this?
More Human Drivers Will be Needed, Not Less
Going to the question around drivers. We still believe that there will be a need for more human drivers than there are even today. If you look at it these ride-sharing services in the US make up about 0.5 percent of vehicle miles traveled. Even if we go to 5 percent and the majority of rides become self-driving, if you do the math on that growth of the overall number of rides, you need even more drivers than you have today.
Also, this technology is great but it’s going to be slowly rolled out. It’s going to take a while for it to be able to do all conditions, all places, all the time.
We haven’t even begun to imagine around the new economy that comes out of self driving vehicles. There’s so much infrastructure that needs to be built around parking and charging and even mundane things like cleaning cars. Then there are serve there are groups of people that need to have assistance, whether it’s elderly people, people requiring physical assistance, or young children. We think there are going to be opportunities abound.
Obstacles to Overcome with Driverless Cars
There are a number of obstacles to overcome with driverless cars. Can I trust that this vehicle is going to operate safely, not just for me but for all the environment and community around us?
Two, is the technology itself. I think we’re on a good path and we’re improving but it’s going to take some time to get there. The other piece of it is that the cost of the vehicles are significantly expensive right now. They’re using expensive computers, expensive sensors, and they’re not made necessarily to last for a long time because they’re in a lot of R&D stage.
So the reliability and the costs have to get better. Then on the government side, the regulations that need to allow for this to flourish. We’re seeing good progress there. If we continue to have a federal level on safety standards then that’s something that’s really positive because it’s not going to be that you have to create a specific car for specific jurisdiction. We think those are the barriers but they all seem very doable.
Surprised at How Quickly Micromobility Has Taken Off
We classify all this (scooters and bike) as micromobility. What we found is that there’s really an unmet need for that zero to two-mile range short distance trips. Yes you could take a Lyft or you could potentially walk but you’re in that zone, especially if it’s a half a mile or more. It is a really convenient thing to do. It’s also a really fun thing to do whether you’re biking or scooting and especially if it’s electric propulsion.
I’m also surprised at how quickly that has penetrated but I think we’re living in a world now where there’s mass adoption, there social networks, and the innovation that’s coming that came in software so fast we’re seeing in hardware. New versions of scooters are about every month. There’s some loss rate and breakage rate that is acceptable given the high usage and it works for the consumer because it’s still a very reasonable price to get around town.
Lyft Helping Society Shift Away From Owning a Car
For people not to own a car, it’s really going to be a stitching together of a number of different modalities. Whether it’s bike, scooters, walking, or ride-sharing together, to provide a really good alternative to owning a car, which is expensive, a hassle, has parking, congestion, and emissions. It’s a really big problem that all these things together are going to be solving.
We want to get them from point A to point B in the most convenient way that they could get there and without owning a car. That’s the key criteria.
I think there will clearly be a big group of the population, especially that lives in cities, that really will not be able to justify owning a car. All the use cases that you’re thinking about you could utilize by short-term rentals, car sharing, ride-sharing, micromobility, or also public transit.
We’ve integrated into public transit and it’s the best way to get around in a lot of instances and we’re feeding into that. There’s a lot of inertia still about buying a car and some people are still wrapping up a car in their self-worth and their identity. That’s changing, especially with young people.
Toyota has introduced the hybrid P4 concept car that includes increased accident protection that is much “smarter” than its predecessor. Toyota says that with greater computing power, its systems can operate more machine learning algorithms in parallel for faster learning. They say it can process sensor inputs faster and react more quickly to the surrounding environment.
The technology was created by the Toyota Research Institute (TRI) as part of their autonomous vehicle R&D. P4 adds two additional cameras to improve situational awareness on the sides and two new imaging sensors – one facing forward and one pointed to the rear – specifically designed for autonomous vehicles.
Toyota Research Institute Rolls Out P4 Automated Driving Test Vehicle at CES.
Additionally, the imaging sensors feature new chip technology with high dynamic range. The radar system has been optimized to improve the field of view, especially for close range detection around the vehicle perimeter. The LIDAR sensing system with eight scanning heads carries over from the previous test model, Platform 3.0, and morphs into the new vehicle design.
“If we are able to reduce technology that theoretically can reduce fatalities by ten-fold or perhaps even a hundred-fold we can make consumers and society safer,” says Bob Carter, Toyota North America Executive Vice President.
Bob Carter, North America Executive Vice President of Toyota, discussed the new Guardian technology at length on Fox Business:
Toyota P4 Concept Car With Guardian Technology
This is I believe our fourth or fifth year where we’re introducing our newest technology, particularly in the autonomous driving area, here at the Consumer Electronics Show. The vehicle we are introducing today is a concept car called P4. It’s our fourth platform. We are introducing what we call our Guardian technology. Guardian is considered the co-pilot sitting in the passenger seat for you.
We are going to demonstrate to the media today where we actually experience an accident on Interstate 80. What the Guardian technology does, it’s an offshoot of development for fully autonomous, is it monitors all the conditions around the car all the time. In the example of this one unfortunate accident that nobody was hurt in one car drifted into its lane into another car and then pushed it into the guardrail. This is a very typical situation.
Guardian Technology Takes Control Prior to Accidents
Our Guardian technology senses that and then momentarily takes the controls from the driver. This includes acceleration, braking, and steering. It can navigate the car out of the area of the accident and then immediately hand back the controls to the driver. The end result is that the driver is still in control of the car. He has the enjoyment of driving, yet in in unforeseen circumstance, technology can take over to avoid the accident.
It was developed by the Toyota Research Institute that we have in the Silicon Valley. They’re working on a number of different technologies for the future that we believe are really going to enhance the safety of society in the future. Unfortunately, it’s are something that does happen. In North America last year there were 40,000 fatalities on our roads.
Guardian Technology May Reduce Fatalities by Ten-Fold
If we are able to reduce technology that theoretically can reduce fatalities by ten-fold or perhaps even a hundred-fold we can make consumers and society safer. In fact, we are so convinced that this technology is the correct path for the future that we are opening up to other auto manufacturers. We would love to see every vehicle on the road today have this sort of technology available for consumers.
Last year, there were 17.2 million vehicles sold. Approximately one percent of those were full battery electric vehicles. We have a very robust system we use with hybrids which is a combination of our gasoline engines and electric. These have been on the market since 1997. We think it is going to take some time for the market to advance but later on next decade we believe electrification will become mainstream in the North American market.
The world’s leading automotive alliance, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, is spending a billion dollars over the next five years investing in technology-focused mobility startups. François Dossa, Head of Alliance Ventures, a strategic venture capital fund of the company, says that they want to invest money in the new technologies that will make the mobility of the future and the car of the future.
Our Sector is Suffering Not an Evolution, But a Revolution
We want to invest money in the new technologies that will make the mobility of the future and the car of the future. We take this very seriously because our sector is suffering not an evolution, but a revolution. We’ve been for years using a car always the same way, your two hands on the wheel and your view on the road, and this is going to change. Many new technologies that we will not develop internally because it would be too long and too expensive and this is why we have to rely on startups.
We are excited with everything related to mobility. In mobility, I can also think of my legs that will be a part of the mobility, so it will be multimodal, not only a car. If I want to go from A to B, I have to be able to use my legs, a bike, a scooter, a car, a train, a van, a bus, and all this together is going to be the new journey that our customer will have. Customers in the future will consider that we are a service company and this is the big change that we have to do. We are good at manufacturing cars and we have to be good at offering a service to our customers.
Should we have our own platform or should we use someone else’s platform? We decided to have our platform, so we’re going to build our platform and I’m in charge of that. On a platform are all the tech bricks that you need to have to offer, ride-hailing, ride pooling, ride sharing, and goods delivery to your customers.
My activity is not to acquire companies, it is to acquire shares in companies. I don’t want to be the owner. If I think of a start-up, if I acquire the startup I kill the startup. We are a company of 475,000 people, that’s a very big company, very kind of heavy company, and we need to keep the fact that in the startup they grow very fast. All these technologies they’re moving very fast. This is why I don’t want to acquire but I want to be part of the shareholder of the company.
What’s Happening in China is Just Amazing
China is the most amazing area in terms of innovation. Number one in the world. What’s happening in China is just amazing. We have been investing in a company called WeRide, it’s a level 4 autonomous startup in China. With level 4 I can tell you, I had a demo with their car in normal traffic conditions and the car goes on the highway and nobody is driving the car. My first reaction I was really dying. I was oh my god and we had 30 minutes and it worked extremely well.
That’s very clear and it’s something that I’d like to say. About 40 years ago the Japanese companies went to the States and to Europe, they copied what we were doing. Then ten years ago, the Chinese did this also. Now I think it’s our time to go to China to look at what they are doing and to copy, because if not they’re going to kill us. We have to be very cautious about China and there are a lot of opportunities especially in deep tech new technologies. With AI, the Chinese know exactly where they are going. They tell you well we have a plan, it’s the central government plan where they want to be in 5, 10, and 15 years.
AI is everywhere, so we have four main activities for investment. First one is the new mobility and this is the decision that we made about the platform. Then we have all related to autonomy, autonomous cars connectivity, and services. and EV, electric vehicles. We are the leader in EV and we want to keep this position, and we need to make a lot of investment and startups are very good at this.
The Key Driver is Really the Technology
Even though I’m not American, I think that money is very important. For me, money is important and it’s also a way to be sure that we invested in the right startups because they will grow and then we’ll make money out of this investment. But this is not the key driver. The key driver is really the technology. We are a strategic fund and so we are here to bring into the Alliance companies and the new technologies that will make this new mobility and this car of the future. That’s really really clear in our mind but we’ll make money also out of it.
About Alliance Ventures:
Alliance Ventures is a strategic venture capital fund of up to $1 billion over the next five years, operated by Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, the world’s leading automotive alliance.
The fund, launched in 2018, with a $200 million initial investment is co-located in Amsterdam, Silicon-Valley, Paris, Yokohama, Beijing and Tel Aviv from where it targets technology and business model innovation in New Mobility, Autonomous Driving, Connected Services, EV & Energy and Enterprise 2.0.
Alliance Ventures is the main interface with the Alliance and its member companies for start-ups, incubators, accelerators, investors and the venture capital eco-system. By drawing on expertise and business opportunities from across the world’s leading automotive alliance, we pursue strategic investments at all maturity stages in startups developing disruptive technologies or businesses, focusing mainly on Series A and B, plus follow-on investments to support the start-up’s growth.
“Elon Musk has really pushed the industry to embrace electrification,” says former Ford CEO Mark Fields. “The challenge here is how do you make money at it?”
Fields says that there will continue to be a large portion of internal combustion engines and that the shift to electric is going to take a long time and it’s going to take longer than people expect.
Mark Fields, former Ford CEO, recently discussed the impact of the shift to electric and autonomous vehicles on the big automakers:
The Shift to Autonomous and Electric Vehicles
We were moving in that direction and during that time period, the financial performance of the company was very good. What the team is dealing with now is trying to define that future and define what that transition is and it’s going to be. It’s going to be a challenge for the entire industry.
You’re coming to the point now where the cycle is ending so volumes are starting to fall off, interest rates are up so you can’t use incentives, whether it’s extended loan maturities or higher incentives and higher leasing to keep volume going.
The Challenge is that Electric Vehicles Are at a Lower Margin
Then there are two new unique things that the industry has never had to face before going into a cycle. One is they have to keep investing in electrification and autonomy. Secondly, when they introduce these electrified vehicles they’re going to be at a lower margin than internal combustion engines.
It’ll take probably five to seven years for cost competitiveness between a battery-powered car and an internal combustion engine car, so they’re going to have to deal with that environment. Every CEO across the globe is making sure that they’re working on their cost structure.
Elon Musk has Really Pushed the Industry to Embrace Electrification
What Elon has done is he has really pushed the industry to embrace electrification. When you drive an electrified vehicle it’s a fantastic experience, great power and torque. The challenge here is how do you make money at it? Elon’s challenge this next year is how do he and his team balance rolling out cheaper models of the Model 3 to boost sales but at the same time not sacrificing that commitment to attain sustainable profitability? That will be the challenge for him and his team.
Going to be a Large Portion of Internal Combustion Engines
I think at the end of the day Ford has down in the ranks a great team. They’ll figure it out. The market changes over time. When I was CEO the stock price was down. It was very clear the financials were terrific but the stock price was down.
I think this is going to be a long game that every OEM is going to be playing as you make this transition to autonomous and electrified vehicles. At the same time, there’s still going to be a large portion of internal combustion engines. This is going to take a long time and it’s going to take longer than people expect.
The Lamborghini Terzo Millennio is a futuristic electric super sports car that is being researched in collaboration with MIT says Automobili Lamborghini Chief Technical Officer Maurizio Reggiani. He said that one of the key technologies that they are collaborating on is a carbon fiber body panel and chassis that will incorporate battery storage and include a high-tech ultra efficient supercapacitor storing more energy with less weight and size.
We were in a Board meeting with our President Stefano Domenicali and we had a discussion about the future of Lamborghini. You can imagine that the super sports car tradition is part of our heritage. But it’s clear we need to look forward as well. If we look forward there is a short-term strategy that is already defined and part of our normal development. However, sometimes you must be much more visionary, to look really forward. Together we started a discussion and we decided to launch a project that we called the Lamborghini Terzo Millennio.
We tried to determine if a futuristic car can be a Lamborghini with the technology of today. The answer was no. For this reason, we started to scout what technology needs are important for the future and we recognized that nowhere was this technology available. Looking inside the most important center of research where something similar was in the pipeline of investigation we discovered at MIT several laboratories that were working on something exactly like this.
Lamborghini Chassis and Body to Double as the Battery
Two years ago there was an official signage between Lamborghini and MIT with this level of collaboration we opened two laboratories that work on futuristic research of structural carbon fiber elements. This research focused on a carbon fiber chassis and body panel that can be made to function as the battery, to store energy inside the panel of the car. The other laboratory is researching a supercapacitor that will allow it to have much more energy storage with less weight and less packaging.
After just one year of signing this agreement with MIT, we have already had a big result in terms of research. It’s clear that it is something that is a strategic project because as you can imagine normally a project like this has three or four years of timing where professors, students, and our engineering team works together. Not everything will work perfectly because it is still being researched and research doesn’t every time provide a solution. We will need to see what can be appliable and can also be sustainable from an economic point of view.
Billionaire investor Ron Baron says that by 2030 Tesla could be a trillion dollar company. He says it’s clear that Tesla will be at $60 billion in sales within the next 3-4 years. Baron added, “It’s remarkable what Elon Musk has done.”
It was a good quarter for Tesla. They had $6.8 billion in sales versus $4 billion, so it’s up 70 percent. They made a billion for cash flow in the quarter before they spent on investing. That means they’re at an annualized rate of $5.5 billion of cash flow before they spend them investing. The company is valued for $60 billion, so it’s 11 or 12 times earnings, that’s not bad.
In addition to that, they are growing at 50 percent a year. I think that this year they did sales at $20 billion. We started in 2014 when they were doing $3.7 billion and this year it’s $20 billion, next year is $30 billion. I think that in 12 to 13 years, by 2030, this could be a trillion dollar company. I think it’s clear they’re going to be $60 billion in three or four years. This could be a really big company.
Cash Flow Doesn’t Appear to be a Problem
As the cash flow goes, when I look at the numbers it doesn’t appear to be the problem. Elon Musk says it’s not a problem, I take him at his word. He could have sold equity a year and a half ago at $370 to $380 a share, people were scrambling to buy, he chose not to. You have these businesses that they invest and when they’re investing they penalize profitability.
When you build a faith factory and you spend $300 million on the factory and it’s built for 250,000 cars a year and you’re doing 20,000 cars a year or 30,000, you’re not going to be profitable with that. But all of a sudden, you get it to 250,000 cars a year, you’re making $150 million on a $300 million investment, then you can double it. You’re at the point now where incremental investments are going to be incredibly profitable. They are now doing 5,000 cars a week, they’re going to be able to do Model 3 for virtually no additional investment. They’re going to get to 7,000 cars a week.
It’s Remarkable What Elon Musk Has Done
They told Wall Street this quarter that just ended that they were hoping to produce a gross profit margin of 15 percent on the Model 3 and it came out over 20 percent. Internally, they were hoping for 20 percent and he kept calling meetings, you got to cut costs here, you’ve got to watch that. When you’re building something from the ground up it’s not easy, it’s not easy doing what he’s done, remarkable what he’s done.
When he started making the Model S and Model X, those cars initially, when they were selling for over $100,000 a car, they had gross profits of 20 percent. Now they’re in the 90s for the car and the gross profits are 31 percent. Gross profits keep going up even though the price has gone down. The same thing is going to happen with this car. I think the gross profits on the Model 3 are going to be as good as they are on the Model S and X and I think the Model Y is going to be the best one they’ve ever had.
Legendary investor and political activist Tim Draper says that instead of getting on the case of Elon Musk, we should be thanking him and other transformational entrepreneurs such as Steve Jobs and Travis Kalanick.
Draper also suggests that Elon Musk probably should have just taken Tesla private in order to avoid the myriad of rules and regulations imposed on public companies.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper was interviewed at the Web Summit in Lisbon, Portugal by CNBC:
These Guys Transformed the World, We Should Thank Them
Every time I pull out my iPhone I think thank you, Steve Jobs, this is awesome. Every time I hit the Uber key, I think thank you, Travis, that is so cool. Every time I get in my Tesla I think thank you Elon. These guys have really transformed the world and we should just thank them everywhere we go. And if they are having trouble supporting them. What can we do to help? How can we support you? How can we make you happier? We want to make you happier, look what you have done for us! It’s so cool!
He Probably Should Have Just Taken the Whole Thing Private
Every human in the world has made a mistake. There are so many laws that you have to follow if you are a public company he probably should have just taken the whole thing private. When you are a public company you’ve got to follow so many rules. If you step one little piece out of line you guys in the press are like… oh my gosh, our hero has done something wrong. I think we have got to say, hey look, he’s a human being, he’s doing the best he can. He’s running two amazing huge multi-billion dollar companies that he started. Well, he started one and jumped in very early and saved the other. This guy is awesome, let’s do what we can to support him.
All of Us Should Really Focus on Making SpaceX Successful
I invest in early-stage startups and then I will ride them as long as I feel it’s the right thing to do. Have you driven a Tesla, it’s so much better than any other car out there. And SpaceX, all of us should really focus on making SpaceX successful. If Tesla doesn’t save this earth, he will at least get some of us off the earth so that we can move our species somewhere else. Elon was amazing… we are all going to Mars. People looked at him and said, oh he’s crazy.
But then all of the best engineers in the world said, how would we get there? Then they thought, how would we have human life succeed there? And then, how can we get there faster? All those questions happen with an engineer and so Elon gets the best rocket scientists in the world working for his company and so, of course, it becomes a big success. He’s going to get us closer and closer to Mars and maybe to Alpha Centauri and other places.
About Tim Draper
Tim Draper helps entrepreneurs change the world. Tim Draper helps entrepreneurs drive their visions through funding, education, media, and government reform. He has founded thirty Draper venture funds, Draper University, Bizworld, and two statewide initiatives to improve governance and education.
Reid Hoffman, LinkedIn co-founder, says regarding embattled Tesla founder Elon Musk, “Part of his grit, part of his determination to get to that long future is to push back against these obstacles. I just think it needs to be a different pattern than those tweets.”
LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman discussed how the rules need be redefined and that Elon Musk should tweet differently, but it’s all part of his determination to build something new:
A Proposal for SEC Rule Changing
I don’t actually look at it as breaking the rules, I look at it as trying to redefine the rules. As opposed to saying, let’s have decades of committee process trying to argue a different rule, let’s try to demonstrate how if we changed the rules the world would be a better place.
You still have to be controlled about which risks you’re taking and what damage to society you may do. But I actually don’t look at it as rule breaking, I look at it as a proposal for rule changing.
Risktaking is Classic for People Trying to Create Something From Nothing
I think it’s classic for the people who say, look we’re going to try to create something from nothing. We’re going to try to do this big thing that hasn’t been done before. I have a willingness to take risks, and so I will learn, oops, that risk I shouldn’t take.
I think we’re in a process of seeing both with Elon and other folks, oh yeah, we shouldn’t do that kind of tweet, that’s not actually in fact constructive.
Part of Elon Musk’s Grit is to Push Back Against Obstacles
I think what he’s focused on is saying look, I am trying to build something that’s three, five, ten years in the future and I don’t want to be like, what does this month look like or this quarter look like? So he’s interpreting it that way.
Part of his grit, part of his determination to get to that long future is to push back against these obstacles. I just think it needs to be a different pattern than those tweets.
The settlement by Tesla with the SEC removing Elon Musk as Chairman of the company was a “gift essentially,” says Gene Munster of Loup Ventures. The markets seem to agree with Tesla stock way up on the news.
Gene Munster Managing Partner of Loup Ventures, a research-driven venture capital firm focused on frontier tech, discussed the departure of Elon Musk as Chairman of Tesla with CNBC’s Squawk on the Street this morning:
It really was an ideal situation for the company and the reason is that not only do you remove him as Chairman, which has been obviously an obstacle for investors over the past several months, but you keep him as CEO. I think to be very clear longer-term Elon Musk does not need to be CEO, but there’s an important piece here that I wasn’t sure how it was going to play out. Having him remain CEO is critical because the company essentially is at war right now in terms of getting to profitability and producing Tesla Model 3’s at a scalable rate.
A wartime CEO is different than a peacetime CEO and I think Elon Musk makes the right wartime CEO. I think that this played out as good as it can. The last piece I’ll add is that this is a huge opportunity for the Board to really bring in somebody from the outside that can gain investor confidence. I hope that they capitalize on that opportunity because it’s something that they couldn’t have done on themselves, they needed to have their hand forced. Here they are with a gift essentially.
Alma Angotti, Managing Director and Co-Head of Global Investigations and Compliance at Navigant, and a former SEC enforcement attorney added:
I think that this is an important message case for the SEC. I think they were eager to have it be concluded quickly. There are a couple of things, the first thing is this was a very important message case for the SEC and secondly I think they wanted to minimize harm to Teslas investors by concluding it quickly. I think they feel like they accomplished their goals with the settlement that they reached.
The automobile business has become a technology business with the advent of driverless cars that learn on their own via artificial intelligence. Now we have learned that Ford is involved in working on a cloud-based central monitoring system that will revolutionize transportation. There are privacy implications too, where governments will know where your car is at 24 hours a day.
From a technology standpoint, this cloud system will help prevent accidents, keep traffic moving, enable smart intersections and promote environmental advantages by bringing more efficiency to every transport mile.
Ford’s advantage in the future is that it’s got in its hand in three technologies that have been transformative. The first is the nature of propulsion which is moving from gas to electric. It might surprise you that less than 5 percent of the market right now is electric, but it’s estimated to be 30 percent in the near future.
The second technology has to do with robotics. You’ve heard about AI where the vehicle is so smart that it can drive itself in the future. The third technology, which isn’t as public, is the notion of a cloud-based system over the vehicles. The confluence of the three of these technologies means that we can now design transportation systems differently and with a system that enables and empowers a better CO2 outcome.
A New Cloud-Based System Being Developed to Control All Driverless Cars
This cloud-based structure is something that hasn’t been here and what it allows is the vehicle and the city to now have a connection. I was in a discussion yesterday with Prime Minister Trudeau and he asked while we were sitting in a traffic light late in the evening when there is nobody in the intersection, why does the red light stay on. In the future, the vehicle will be mediated through intersections like that with this smart system.
If you are an investor looking at this it will be over an $11 trillion industry. This is why the tech industry is so interested in our business because it’s a systems play of the smart technologies of the vehicle and the environment coming together. It’s talking about building bandwidth so the vehicles can communicate, 5G is really important. It’s also about making smart intersections so that the navigation of the vehicles are safe.
Then a third idea is parking where we can have the vehicle communicate with parking spaces. You lose more fuel efficiency trying to find a parking space than you do being stuck in traffic.
Combination of Vehicles and Technology Now Defines the Car Business
I look at the car business as a combination of vehicles and technology which is what’s defining it in the future, versus just thinking about it as a pure vehicle. Think of it this way, the cars have a number of computers and software in them today but the way they are in the future is really rolling computers. You have to think of the business differently because of that.
Ford Committed to be “In Market” with a Driverless Car by 2021
Ford is committed by 2021 to be in market with a driverless electric car. But this is a marathon, the cars will be super smart and they learn. The way they learn is by being driven. When they hit the market they will be safe, probably have narrow assignments as to what they can do, but over time they will expand.
The great thing is that when you hear about serving the world, this is going to allow us to do things because the vehicle is intelligent, like getting goods to people that couldn’t get it, helping people have jobs that don’t have transportation today or helping take older people to the doctor. This kind of assistance will be available with that technology.
This aspect of the car business is one where there is no profit yet, the technology is new, the design of the systems is emerging, but it’s where all the future will be.
Google is finally taking steps to ensure that its rapid development in the field of AI will only bring about positive change for the whole of humanity. London-based company DeepMind, a subsidiary of Google parent firm Alphabet, has formed a new research unit called “Ethics & Society,” tasked to steer the group’s AI efforts.
“Our intention is always to promote research that ensures AI works for all,” DeepMind explains in a blog post. Promising to “help technologists put ethics into practice,” DeepMind Ethics & Society group outlined the principles that will guide its future endeavors: social benefit, being rigorous and evidence-based, transparency and diversity.
The group is comprised of thinkers and experts from a variety of disciplines. They include Nick Bostrom (Oxford University philosopher), Diane Coyle (economist from University of Manchester), Edward W. Felten (computer scientist from Princeton University) and Christiana Figueres (Mission 2020 convener) to name a few, Gizmodo reported. The group lists some of the key issues it will address including AI risk management, setting up standards of AI morality and values as well as lessening the economic disruption AI will likely bring when it replaces real people in the workforce.
It still remains to be seen just how persuasive DeepMind Ethics & Society will be in terms of imposing its recommendations on Google’s AI ambitions. A clash between the two groups is likely to happen in the future considering that Google’s thrust of churning out potentially profitable AI-powered products may run counter to the Ethics & Society’s goals and principles.
The rapid development of artificial intelligence is a rather divisive issue even among industry titans. One of the most vocal opponents of unregulated research on AI is Tesla CEO Elon Musk who view artificial intelligence as a potential threat to mankind, calling for a proactive stance in its regulation.
“AI is the rare case where I think we need to be proactive in regulation instead of reactive,” Musk said earlier this year.” Because I think by the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it’ll be too late. AI is a fundamental risk to the existence of human civilization.”
For the regular Joe, AI is becoming an increasing threat to job security with robots projected to replace humans in a variety of fields. However, the threat could be even graver than mere job-hungry robots as some are now speculating that bots could ultimately start a third world war.
In a Twitter post, Elon Musk warned once again of the dangers posed by artificial intelligence. This time, however, the Tesla and SpaceX CEO believes that the heating race between nations over AI superiority will likely trigger World War III.
“It begins,” Musk, warned via Twitter on Monday. Musk, who has always been outspoken about the dangers of AI, added that the global AI race could become a flashpoint in the future. Musk’s warning came after Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed that “the country leading the way in AI will become ruler of the world.”
China, Russia, soon all countries w strong computer science. Competition for AI superiority at national level most likely cause of WW3 imo.
Musk gave a scenario on how World War III could be started by AIs. As artificial intelligence gets more capable, robots may be given more control and autonomy and maybe even be given discretionary powers to launch nuclear weapons in the future. And that could be a recipe for disaster.
As Elon puts it, the future world war “may be initiated not by the country leaders, but one of the AI’s.” This could happen if the cold, calculating machines decide on a preemptive attack.
May be initiated not by the country leaders, but one of the AI’s, if it decides that a prepemptive strike is most probable path to victory
In fact, Musk assessment is that AI is even more dangerous to human civilization than the nuclear capable North Korea. Despite its posturing, North Korea will not likely launch a preemptive strike considering the retaliation. On the other hand, the emotionless AIs will have no such hesitations.
The emergence of artificial intelligence in weaponry is also a cause of concern for billionaire Mark Cuban, who shares Musk’s position. Cuban warns against placing weapons control under AIs saying that “Autonomous weaponry is the ultimate threat to humanity.”
Investors were not deterred by Tesla Inc’s latest report of a financial loss said to be the largest in the carmaker’s history. Last week, the company’s share price managed to soar by 8 percent buoyed by positive developments deemed favorable to the electronic auto manufacturer in the long run.
Powering investor confidence in Tesla’s long-term prospects is the announcement that demand for Model 3, the company’s mid-size electric luxury sedan, remains strong. In fact, the carmaker announced that it received around 1,800 orders a day for that particular model, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, the automaker announced that demand for the pricier Tesla Model S bounced back after a recent decline. CEO Elon Musk even stated that July was “one of the best months ever” for the full-sized luxury car.
With its cars selling like hotcakes, the challenge for Tesla now is how to meet the burgeoning demand. Musk warned investors that the next six months will be a “manufacturing hell” for the company as it struggles to keep up with the 455,000 customers who pre-ordered the Model 3.
The long wait might also become a bit of a turn off for potential Model 3 buyers. Recode reports that if one were to pre-order the car today, it is likely to be delivered by end of 2018. In fact, there were around 63,000 customers who canceled their reservations as the original number of pre-orders was disclosed to be 518,000 cars.
However, Musk assured investors that Tesla is on track to meet the increasing demand. The company now plans to increase its output to 5,000 Model 3 cars a week by the end of 2017. The firm estimates that it will be able to eventually produce 10,000 units weekly by 2018.
But of course, this production capacity increase will come with a price. The company eroded its cash reserves by almost a billion in the first half of this year as it continued to improve its Fremont and Nevada factories. Deepak Ahuja, Tesla CFO, revealed that it was the firm’s highest spending spree on record with expenses reaching as high as $100 million a week.
But investors remained focused on Tesla’s long-term potential. Despite a planned $2 billion in expenditures on the second half of the year, the company’s share price managed to soar to a high of $386.99 from January to June.
Tesla is still the recognized leader in the autonomous vehicle concept on the strength of its Model S and Model X. But the new partnership between Google’s Waymo and Lyft aims to give Elon Musk a run for his money.
The two Silicon Valley companies have agreed to unify their resources and expertise to commercialize self-driving cars.
A spokesperson for Lyftsaid, “Waymo holds today’s best self-driving technology, and collaborating with them will accelerate our shared vision of improving lives with the world’s best transportation.”
The partnership was also confirmed by a spokesperson for Waymo who remarked, “Lyft’s vision and commitment to improving the way cities move will help Waymo’s self-driving technology reach more people, in more places.”
Waymo may possess the “best technology” since its self-driving cars are already averaging 5,000 miles without any human help, according to a report from the California DMV. In contrast, GM’s Cruise Automation is only averaging in the “hundreds of miles.”
However, Waymo does not have the knowledge on transportation networking to really make the jump between the deployment of its automated cars and mass commercialization. This is where Lyft will come in.
For those who are not familiar with Lyft, it’s similar to Uber but targets ordinary drivers looking to make some extra buck as partners. Customers also pay through the company’s app, but while the tip is already integrated into the final cost for Uber, Lyft asks users to add the tip through its app.
By the end of the year, Lyft will beavailablein 300 key US cities.
But this partnership will be beneficial not just for Google’s Waymo, but Lyft as well. It’s not an accident that people have not heard about Lyft because it comes a distant second to Uber. For instance, the company only has a $5 billion market valuation compared to Uber’s $68 billion.
The problem with ride-sharing networks is their heavy dependence on their partner drivers in order to scale up their business. In fact, drivers—along with the vehicles and fuel—make up 85% of the cost. Uber has the money to invest on a grand scale to cut the difference, a luxury that Lyft does not possess.
One solution is to cut the human drivers and go fully automated, the reportsaid. Instead of sharing the revenues with their human partners, they can quickly recoup their investments by operating an automated fleet.
Driverless vehicles have the ability to literally change the world by making driving safer, more energy efficient, more accessible, and many will be happy to hear… eliminate congestion and gridlock. The government today made an important first step in truly making this possible.
“Today is an important moment at the Department of Transportation,” announced Anthony Foxx, US Secretary of Transportation. “We have issue record recalls, we still have too many people dying on our roadways and we have too many Moms and Dads stuck in traffic losing productive time with their families. In the 50 years of the Department of Transportation there has never been a moment like this.”
He added, “A moment where we can build a culture of safety as new transportation technology emerges that harnesses the potential to save even more lives and that will improve the quality of life for so many Americans. Today, we put forward the first Federal policy on automated vehicles. The most comprehensive national automated vehicle policy that the world has ever seen. It is a first of its kind.”
“It is taking us from the horseless carriage to the driverless car,” says Foxx. The policy is effective today, but the agency welcomes ongoing dialogue and will make changes as time goes on. “The focus on this technology will always be safety.”
The New Driverless Vehicle Policies
The new policies by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) will also let those “drive” without a drivers license, just like they do currently with Uber, Lyft and taxis. The government differentiates rules and regulations for cars requiring a driver and those that don’t.
If you were wondering, driverless cars will not have to have steering wheels or brake pedals. The agency says they have been charged with creating a path toward fully autonomous vehicles.
The 15 point assessment is designed to recognize that driverless vehicles are a rapidly changing and emerging technology. It does however, let the industry see a roadmap for how the government will deal with the regulatory environment for autonomous vehicles. Their goal is to build a safety culture now around autonomous vehicles, instead of as an afterthought.
The bottom line is that the NHTSA is extending its rulemaking authority to driverless vehicles.
Autonomous Vehicles Will End Drunk Driving
Also speaking during the announcement was the National President of Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD), Colleen Sheehey-Church, saying “over ten thousand people continue to die each year needlessly due to drunk driving.” She added, “A fully autonomous vehicle would stop a drunk drive simply because they can’t physically drive the vehicle.”
“I would also like to point out the driverless cars can do much more than simply stop drunk driving, these vehicles could potentially stop most of the traffic deaths in our country,” says Sheehey-Church. “A driverless car is not distracted, it ensures that the occupants are traveling at appropriate speeds and it would avoid pedestrians and bicyclists.”
“While improving safety, a driverless car would also create new mobility opportunities,” she said. “Older drivers who may be shut in or unable to drive may be able to drive at night again. Members of the disabled community who may not be able to drive could now have new opportunities for transportation like never before.”
“To that end, MADD is proud to support the new proposal on autonomous vehicles,” she said.
Watch the HAV Press Conference here:
Overview of Federal Automated Vehicles Policy
The Obama Administration today has released the first set of guidelines for fully autonomous vehicles called the Federal Automated Vehicles Policy. The 8 page policy release predicts a driverless car future that will create safer roads and many more energy efficient transportation options. Although the main focus of the new policy is about highly automated vehicles (HAVs), there are portions that also apply to lesser levels of automation such as the driver assist systems found in Tesla’s and other high end cars.
“We’re envisioning a future where you can take your hands off the wheel and the wheel out of the car, and where your commute becomes productive and restful, rather than frustrating and exhausting,” said Jeff Zients, who is Director of the National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, in announcing the new policy.
The government sees autonomous vehicles as a way to leap current hurdles for the 4 million Americans who are living with a disability as well as older people who have difficulty seeing at night. They also view it as a way to make our society more fair and just, where vehicles are made assessable for all. They even believe that blind people will eventually be able to use driverless cars to get around, with innovative technology that will be developed to assist.
The policy guidelines which were developed over several years are a work in progress and will be updated annually with the goal of keeping the regulations up-to-date with the rapidly evolving technology.
Components of the Policy
Vehicle Performance Guidance for Automated Vehicles: The guidance for manufacturers, developers and other organizations outlines a 15 point “Safety Assessment” for the safe design, development, testing and deployment of automated vehicles.
Model State Policy: This section presents a clear distinction between Federal and State responsibilities for regulation of HAVs, and suggests recommended policy areas for states to consider with a goal of generating a consistent national framework for the testing and deployment of highly automated vehicles.
Current Regulatory Tools: This discussion outlines DOT’s current regulatory tools that can be used to accelerate the safe development of HAVs, such as interpreting current rules to allow for greater flexibility in design and providing limited exemptions to allow for testing of nontraditional vehicle designs in a more timely fashion.
Modern Regulatory Tools: This discussion identifies potential new regulatory tools and statutory authorities that may aid the safe and efficient deployment of new lifesaving technologies.
Vehicle Performance Guidance
The policy creates a 15-point Safety Assessment which outlines objectives on how to achieve a robust design. It allows for varied methodologies as long as the objective is met:
Operational Design Domain: How and where the HAV is supposed to function and operate;
Object and Event Detection and Response: Perception and response functionality of the HAV system;
Fall Back (Minimal Risk Condition): Response and robustness of the HAV upon system
failure;
Validation Methods: Testing, validation, and verification of an HAV system;
Registration and Certification: Registration and certification to NHTSA of an HAV system;
Data Recording and Sharing: HAV system data recording for information sharing,
knowledge building and for crash reconstruction purposes;
Post-Crash Behavior: Process for how an HAV should perform after a crash and how
automation functions can be restored;
Privacy: Privacy considerations and protections for users;
System Safety: Engineering safety practices to support reasonable system safety;
Vehicle Cybersecurity: Approaches to guard against vehicle hacking risks;
Human Machine Interface: Approaches for communicating information to the driver,
occupant and other road users;
Crashworthiness: Protection of occupants in crash situations;
Consumer Education and Training: Education and training requirements for users of
HAVs;
Ethical Considerations: How vehicles are programmed to address conflict dilemmas on
the road; and
Federal, State and Local Laws: How vehicles are programmed to comply with all
applicable traffic laws.
Model State Policy
The policy emphasizes that states will continue with their traditional responsibilities for vehicle licensing and registration, traffic laws and enforcement, and motor vehicle insurance and liability regimes while also carving out a new Federal role for autonomous vehicles. The goal is to not have states stepping all over themselves with a hodgepodge of rules, making it impossible for self-driving cars to drive between states.
The Federal responsibilities include setting safety standards and enforcing them, investigating safety issues and managing recalls, public education on driverless safety and communicating future guidance to the public in order to achieve national safety goals.
The Feds also created a regulatory framework model for states to follow in order to create a consistent approach to governing autonomous vehicles:
Application by manufacturers or other entities to test HAVs on public roads;
Jurisdictional permission to test;
Testing by the manufacturer or other entities;
Drivers of deployed vehicles;
Registration and titling of deployed vehicles;
Law enforcement considerations; and
Liability and insurance.
Current Regulatory Tools
Especially interesting is the governments forward looking approach in trying to make existing laws work to allow the use of driverless vehicles. This will be done via government agency reinterpretation of existing laws, using Letters of Interpretation, basically stretching them as far as they can go without changing their intent.
The policy is also going to use its current power to provide limited exemptions to vehicle manufactures to test new designs of cars that are not currently allowed. For instance, all cars must have a steering wheel, except that you don’t need one in a driverless car and it could even add danger because people could bump into it. Exemptions will allow manufacturers to bypass “buggy whip” rules that aren’t applicable in a vehicle that nobody is driving.
They have also created a path to more permanent ways to bypass old safety and design rules using a petition for rulemaking. This allows manufactures to adopt new standards, modify existing standards, or repeal an existing standard.
Modern Regulatory Tools
The new policy identifies new tools that could be created under current law while also laying the foundation for new laws requiring Congressional action. Within this section the policy is a first step toward reinventing laws and regulations of the world’s likely driverless future revolving around safety issues, software updates, regulation processes, record keeping and data sharing.
Data sharing is an area the self driving industry may not be too happy about. They are likely to focus their army of lobbyist on Congress to make sure they aren’t giving up their proprietary data that they have spent millions obtaining.
Tesla announced this month that it has delivered 11,580 cars in Q3 of 2015. This includes the company’s initial deliveries of Model X.
Tesla said that although it had a week of planned production shutdown, the delivery level represented a 49% increase over Q3 of 2014. It was also the sixth consecutive quarter of growth.
There may be small changes to this delivery count (usually well under 1%), as Tesla only counts a delivery if it is transferred to the end customer and all paperwork is correct
Also, this is only one measure of our financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of our quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.
On Monday, Tesla announced the release date for its third quarter 2015 financial results. These will be reported on Tuesday, November 3 at 5:30pm Eastern Time. Along with the results, a Q3 2015 Shareholder Letter will be made available.
The 2016 Ford Focus RS is of to a great start with sales in the UK. The vehicle was unveiled last month, and according to CarScoops, UK buyers have already placed 1,500 orders for it.
Not only is the car already selling well, many of the orders include optional extra features. The publication shares this quote from Ford:
“We expected those first in the queue, many of whom are owners of previous RS models, to be exacting about their requirements, and so it has proved, with many opting for motorsport-style Recaro shell front seats, 19-inch black forged alloy wheels, luxury pack, electric tilt/side sunroof and Ford SYNC2 navigation and sound system,” said Andy Barratt, Ford of Britain chairman and managing director.
Ford has an interactive infographic out featuring “everything you need to know” about the vehicle:
“Complete with a roll-call of legendary Ford RS models, it’s the perfect complement to our ‘Rebirth of an icon’ series – the behind-the-scenes story of creating a new generation of the iconic hot-hatch,” Ford says.
